Fiorentina vs. Lyon: We Are Liverpool’s Only Hope

By: Inara | November 23rd, 2009

Tomorrow’s match will be meaningful not just for Lyon and Fiorentina, but also our group mates, Liverpool and Debrecen. Lyon have already qualified for the knockout rounds, but their position in the group has yet to be determined. Fiorentina on the other hand have one foot in the door, but they’re progress is not yet assured. Liverpool are sitting at the back door and hoping that someone will throw them a bone out the window. As for Debrecen…well, they aren’t totally written off either – if they beat Liverpool, they still have the chance to qualify for the Europa League.

So everything’s left to play for, which will make Matchday 5 in Group E très très intéressant.

Lyon Cesar Delgado

(Our new mascot?)

November 24th, 2009
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
2:45 PM ET (20:45 CET, 19:45 GMT)

Match Background:

This is our fourth game against Fiorentina within the span of a single year, so I probably don’t need to go into detail about them (you can read the preview from match day one, which offers a bit more background). Instead, let’s get up to speed about what’s happened in the three months since the teams last met.

Currently, Fiorentina are 6th in the Serie A table. So far this season, they have accrued 21 points, with six wins, three draws, and four losses. They’ve scored 15 goals and conceded 12. Their top scorer is Alberto Gilardino, who’s notched six goals in domestic competition. In Europe, Fiorentina are sitting in second place in the Group E table, with three wins and one loss. They are tied for first place with Real Madrid with 11 goals scored, but they have also conceded 6 goals. Their top scorer in the CL is Adrian Mutu, with three goals to his name, though both Stevan Jovetic and Alberto Gilardino have also scored two a piece.

Like Lyon, Fiorentina flopped over the weekend, losing at home to Parma 2-3. Gilardino scored both of Fiorentina’s goals, so he is in top form. He also scored all three of Fiorentina’s goals against Lyon last season. They’re also in a bit of an injury crisis, so like us, they will be crossing their fingers over fielding a weakened team.

On the other side of the Alps, Lyon have been inexplicably turning down the opportunity to take over first place. Despite Bordeaux’s string of losses and draws, Lyon can do no better. Right now, they are in 3rd place in L1, behind Bordeaux and top of the table Auxerre (!!). They have 25 points, with seven wins, four draws, and two losses. They’ve scored 23 goals and conceded 17 (!!!!!!!). Ridiculous, right? Lyon’s top scorer in domestic competition is still Bafetimbi Gomis, with five goals. In Europe, Lyon are top of their group, with three wins and one draw. They’ve scored 8 goals and conceded 2. Lyon’s top scorer in Europe is Miralem Pjanic, who has two goals. Lyon’s other 6 goals came from six different scorers. Which is pretty impressive, fyi. Or disturbing, if you are a glass half empty person.

For the Math Geeks:

I had to use several complicated equations and my engineering calculator to tell you the various possibilities of the results of tomorrow’s game. It was the most math I’ve done since college. Which is sad because I’m a scientist, but that’s a story for another day (and another blog).

If Lyon win: They top group E. Their position is unassailable no matter what happens on Match Day 6.
If Lyon draw: They can still top their group as long as they beat Debrecen at the Gerland, even if Fiorentina beat Liverpool.
If Lyon lose: This is where it gets tricky because it depends on several factors. If Fiorentina win tomorrow, then Lyon must beat Debrecen while also hoping that Liverpool beat Fiorentina on Match day 6. If Fiorentina win both of their remaining games, then Lyon will be runners up in the group. If Fiorentina win tomorrow and then draw at Liverpool, and assuming Lyon beat Debrecen, then it will come down to the head-to-head record between Lyon and Fiorentina. Which means that it depends on the the margin of Fiorentina’s victory against Lyon as well as the goal differentials of both teams.

Liverpool also have a stake in this, as a Lyon victory would still give them a chance to qualify. Puel has promised Benitez that he won’t be fielding a weakened team just because Lyon have already qualified. It’s important that Lyon win their group because in the last five years, Lyon have gone out three times to the eventual champions. Finishing group winners would ensure a better draw, which might be the difference between further progress in the CL or not.

Lyon Fiorentina Cris Danielle

Both teams will do everything possible in order to win.

But Fiorentina don’t care about Lyon or Liverpool – they know that a victory for them tomorrow ensures their qualification. Anything less than that, and it all comes down to their final match at Anfield. It’s pressure that Prandelli and his players want to avoid at all cost, so they’ll be gunning for the full three points against Lyon.

There is also that small matter of their trampled feelings, as their last three encounters against Lyon saw them collect only one point. Two of those games were smothered in controversy – last year it was Lyon scoring when a Fiorentina player was down injured on the pitch, and this year it was Gilardino’s harsh red card for elbowing Toulalan in the face. So there might be some vengeful feelings on their parts. Maybe.

Team News:

Fiorentina have several injuries to contend with. The most notable ones are Adrian Mutu and Alessandro Gamberini, who will be watching from the stands. Stevan Jovetic has been declared fit enough to travel, but according to Prandelli, he will most likely be starting from the bench.

Le groupe de la Fiorentina: Avramov, Castillo, Comotto, Dainelli, De Silvestri, Donadel, Frey, Gilardino, Gobbi, Jorgensen, Jovetic, Kroldrup, Marchionni, Masi, Montolivo, Pasqual, Santana, Vargas, Zanetti.

Lyon’s injury situation is unsurprisingly more woeful. Jeremy Toulalan will be missing his first Champions League game since early last year due to groin problems. Mathieu Bodmer and Cleber Anderson are still out, and Maxime Gonalons, the latest sensation from the youth academy, is still recovering from a knock he picked up while on duty with the France U21 team. Worse yet, both Anthony Reveillere and Francois Clerc picked up injuries, so Lyon will be without any senior RB.

Le groupe lyonnais: Lloris, Vercoutre – Gassama, Cris, Boumsong, Seguin, Cissokho, Kolo – Makoun, Pjanic, Källström, Ederson, Grenier – Govou, Lisandro, Bastos, Delgado, Gomis, Tafer, Belfodil.

Lamine Gassama, Ishak Belfodil, Yannis Tafer, Nicolas Seguin, Clement Grenier, and Timothée Kolodziejczak (that’s over 20% of our team) will be making the jump from the CFAs to the senior team for this match.

Expected Lineup:

If I were Prandelli, I’d be telling my players to focus all their attacks on Lyon’s right flank, where Lamine Gassama is by far the weakest link in the defense. However, Gassama acquitted himself well against Liverpool and even in his other matches for the senior team, so I guess things aren’t quite that dire. Jean-Alain Boumsong, who’s made his return from injury just in time, will be partnering Cris in defense. Aly Cissokho will be on the left, and he should be well rested, as he didn’t play last weekend against Grenoble due to a suspension.

In midfield, I expect to see the usual triad of Jean II Makoun, Miralem Pjanic, and Kim Kallstrom, unless Puel decides to go wild and use a formation not called a 4-3-3. But I doubt it. This is Puel, after all.

Up front is the usual musical chairs. Lisandro Lopez is a definite starter, but Puel is going to have the tough task of deciding which of Sidney Govou, Bafetimbi Gomis, and Michel Bastos should be playing. And let’s not forget that Ederson and Cesar Delgado are also available.

Lloris
Gassama – Cris – Boumsong – Cissokho
Pjanic – Makoun – Kallstrom
Govou – Lisandro – Bastos

Oh, and speaking of Lisandro, he’s one yellow card away from a suspension. I imagine Puel will be asking him to pick up a harmless yellow tomorrow so that he can serve his suspension during the Debrecen game. Better he miss that game than a more dangerous one in the knockout stages.

Viewing Options:

If you’re in North America, this match will be live on Fox Soccer Channel. If you live abroad, I suggest you check your TV listings – I’m sure this game will be shown somewhere.

You can also give streaming a try. You can try to find a working here, or you can chuck out $10 and buy one from UEFA.com. Hopefully you’ll be able to find a good stream, as this is one of the bigger matches tomorrow. Remember, sharing is caring, and if you find a working stream, please share!

If you’d rather skip out on the streaming drama altogether, you can follow along on liveblog. Both Football365.fr and Lequipe.fr will have good ones, as will the OL website, where you can also follow along with free audio commentary – though be warned, it’s all in French. About an hour before the game starts, I will update post links to the actual liveblog.

ALSO, I’ve decided to do a liveblog of my own on the Lyon Offside. I enjoyed the one during the OL vs. OM game, and since I’ll be free tomorrow, I can host a liveblog without worry of workplace distractions. So expect to see another post put up tomorrow afternoon.

Expected Result:

Lyon have what it takes to get a win. But they can’t seem to do better than a draw these days. I’m going to bold and hope for a 1-0 win.