Rangers vs. Lyon Preview

By: Inara | December 10th, 2007

Well, here it is. The game that will make or break the rest of Lyon’s season. If Lyon want to progress to the next Champions League round, they have to win. If you’re as nervous as I am, you’ll probably be popping pills all day Wednesday leading up to the game, and after the game, you’ll either get drunk with friends as you celebrate or get drunk in your room in a pity party for one.

This is a really long preview, so brace yourself.

Lyon must play to their full potential.

December 12, 2007
Ibrox Stadium, Glasgow
2:45 Eastern Time (20:45 in France)

Match Background:

I’ve been talking about this match for a long time, and I’m sure most of you by now are sick of hearing about it. Have no fear - in 48 hours, this will be over. Since Barcelona have already qualified and sealed the top spot in the group, that leaves Lyon and Rangers battling it out for second and third. Stuttgart have no choice but to take fourth even if they snag a win tomorrow.

Rangers started out their Champions League campaign quite brightly, winning against Stuttgart at home and Lyon in France. But since then, they’ve only taken one point in their last three matches, and that was to Barca at home. Fortunately for Rangers, their last game is at Ibrox, and given their superior head to head record against Lyon, they only need a draw to progress.

Lyon’s campaign has been the exact opposite. They lost their first two matches, won times both against Stuttgart, and their most recent game saw them getting a point out of Barcelona. They are in the unfortunate position of needing a win in Glasgow, and given France’s recent history with Scottish opposition, the situation does indeed look ominous.

Of course, the losing team will have a UEFA Cup campaign to look forward to, and both Lyon and Rangers may find more success in that particular competition. Both Jean-Michel Aulas and Alain Perrin seem to think so. But when you’re this close to having it all, who cares about the consolation prize?

Karim Benzema doesn’t. He openly admitted in an interview today that playing in the UEFA Cup would be a disappointment. And who can blame him? Ever since he’s been promoted to Lyon’s first team, he’s only seen Lyon in the Champions League - and not those qualifying matches either. It would be a huge blow to him that on the year of his really big breakout, Lyon end up plying their trade against the “minnows.”

The Teams:

There has been a lot of hoopla (including on this blog) about the fact that Rangers got their weekend match postponed so that they could spend a week preparing for Lyon. We’ll see if that has helped any on Wednesday evening. While Rangers will be more fresh, that may not result in match sharpness, since ten days without playing can be an awfully long time.

Kallstrom is one of several Lyon players in peak form.

Since the Lyon-Rangers game, OL have rebounded. They’ve scored 30 goals in 12 games while conceding 15 goals (in all competitions). They’ve had nine wins, two losses, and one draw. Contrast that to Rangers, who in the games since then, have scored only 15 goals and conceded 10, with five wins, four losses, and one draw.

Lyon lost this weekend against Caen, but it seems that most of the players played the match at half-gear, so it’s hard to tell just what impact that result will have. I personally am praying that the loss to Caen will prevent the players from becoming complacent because Caen exposed some of Lyon’s vulnerabilities. It should also be noted that before their losses to Barcelona and Rangers, Lyon hammered Metz 5-1 and Lens 3-0. So clearly winning beforehand doesn’t mean much when it comes to Europe.

Rangers will be hoping to frighten Lyon with a card display. After all, there is nothing more intimidating for a seasoned team like Lyon than a bunch of blue and white postcards. But in all seriousness, Ibrox has been branded as a challenging stadium by many, and Scottish fans tend to be amongst the loudest. Lyon have played twice in Glasgow, both times against Celtic (a win in 2000 and a loss in 2003). But Lyon have played in some of the biggest and most daunting stadiums in Europe and have come away with favorable results many of those times. So while Rangers will no doubt have that 12th man, given the stakes of this game, Lyon have no excuse to be intimidated.

The Scottish media are clinging fast to Rangers’ long unbeaten home record, though that includes all European matches, including UEFA Cup and CL qualifying games. In addition, Rangers dented Lyon’s long standing home record (only one loss in four years), so I don’t see why Lyon can’t return the favor.

The Players:

I’ve already done a more in depth overview of Rangers’ manager and key players in my preview of the Lyon-Rangers match, so this time I’ll just provide updated information.

Rangers will be without the services of the eternally injured Jean-Claude Darcheville, who wasn’t present for the first match either. Additionally, DaMarcus Beasley suffered a knee ligament damage and will be out for months. It’s unclear whether Nacho Novo will be available for the match. Rangers haven’t made their squad list available yet, though once it’s made public, I’ll post it here.

You know it’s a bad day when Daniel Cousin scores against you.

I personally have never rated Darcheville or Beasley, so their losses don’t make me feel particularly relieved. As for Daniel Cousin, who may end up playing as the lone striker for Rangers…well, let’s just say that Lens getting money for him was robbery. Yes, I know both Cousin and Beasley scored against Lyon that night, but the way that game was going, Walter Smith could have gotten on the field and scored one himself.

But I am glad that Novo may not be fit in time because he is very fast and tricky. I remember him from when Paul Le Guen was at Rangers and how Novo was the only bright light during some of their games. I know Ian of the Scotland Offside rates him as well, so I’m going to cross my fingers and hope Novo keeps his speed and creativity in the stands next Wednesday.

Le groupe Rangers: TBA

On behalf of Lyon, injuries are once again plaguing the team. Gregory Coupet is unfortunately not ready to make the trip, and Cris is of course not expected to be back until late January while Patrick Muller will probably end up missing this entire season. All three are internationals, heavily experienced, and pillars of Lyon’s defenses. But the team have gone all season without them, so they’ve had a lot of time to cope with their absence.

Le groupe lyonnais: Vercoutre, Roux - Clerc, Réveillère, C.Anderson, Squillaci, Paillot, Grosso, Belhadj - Bodmer, Källström, Toulalan, Juninho, Govou, Ben Arfa, Keita, Mounier - Benzema, Baros, Rémy.

As you can see, neither Fred nor Fabio Santos will be making the trip. Fred is still suffering from straining an adductor muscle while Fabio Santos has been troubled with his Achilles tendon. I confess that I won’t be missing Fred, but I will miss Fabio Santos. He’s a beast and would have added that extra mafioso quality in Lyon’s midfield.

To compensate, Perrin is bringing on Loic Remy, Sandy Paillot, and Anthony Mounier - all youth players. Remy’s only first team appearance with Lyon this season was against Barcelona two weeks ago as a second half sub while Mounier and Paillot haven’t played at all (though both were heavily involved in Lyon’s Peace Cup tournament). I rate Mounier a lot, but Perrin doesn’t, so don’t expect to see him even warming up on Wednesday.

Tactics:

Vercoutre
Clerc - Squillaci - Anderson - Grosso
Juninho - Toulalan - Kallstrom
Govou - Benzema - Ben Arfa

So let’s talk about the dirty details. This is pretty much Lyon’s starting XI with the exception of RB, which undergoes constant rotation. Anyway, after Anthony Reveillere’s poor game last weekend, I’d much rather see Francoic Clerc. It’s also a given that Fabio Grosso will be playing this match.

I think the big question is who will pair Sebastien Squillaci in central defense. Anderson is crap, but is trusting Mathieu Bodmer - a midfielder - a good idea when the stakes are so high? Bodmer has played as a CB quite a few times this season, and while his most recent match in that position (against Rennes) was alright, he hasn’t played there since. He was also horrible in that position in some other matches. So who is the lesser of two evils?

Some defensive solidarity would be nice this time.

The selection of Bodmer or Anderson could end up being the most important decision Perrin will have to make this season (I’m not joking either). Lyon’s defenses have been in a sorry state, and in the past four weeks, Lyon have conceded three penalties. That’s more than they gave up all last season. The defenders are highly strung out, and it’s clear that the absences of Cris, Coupet, and Muller have wrecked what otherwise might have been an easier CL campaign.

As for midfield, I would have preferred a setup with both Fabio Santos and Jeremy Toulalan, but that is now out of the question. Fortunately, Kim Kallstrom has been great in the past few weeks and links up well with Toulalan and Juninho.

The attack will be the strongest part of the team. Sidney Govou, Karim Benzema, and Hatem Ben Arfa are in the forms of their lives, and not only are they free scoring, but they are fast, strong, and very tricky players. Rangers may have a tight defense, but count on these three to be on fire.

Game Play:

If you had asked me two weeks ago what sort of game I would expect to see, I would have said that Rangers would play in their favored 10-0 formation to get a scoreless draw like they did against Barca. But I think that has changed. Playing for a draw is dangerous in these circumstances, and while Rangers did hold off Barca, Walter Smith has surely noticed that Lyon are on a goal scoring spree, have so much more to play for, and certainly have the firepower to breach their defenses.

It would be smarter for Rangers to attack given the state of Lyon’s defenses. Rangers currently lack the players to challenge through counterattacks, so unless they want to play the game entirely in their own half (and rest assured, Lyon will put at least one of their chances away), it would be better if Rangers took advantage of the fragility of Lyon’s back four.

Juninho’s right foot strikes fear into the heart of goalkeepers everywhere.

Lyon on the other hand know their weaknesses and will strive to make sure Rangers never see the ball. Given that Lyon will undoubtedly dominate the possession, the key player won’t be Juninho but Toulalan, who will make sure to break up Rangers’ midfield. It’s Toulalan who acts as a fifth defender, breaks up opposition play with those sweet tackles, and distributes the ball to his teammates. It’s Toulalan who creates space for Juninho and Kallstrom. It’s Toulalan who has been Lyon’s most important player so far this season. And if you ask me, if Toulalan had been on the pitch during Lyon-Rangers, I think the outcome would have been a lot different.

So it’s interesting for me to see that so many Scots consider Juninho to be the biggest (and in some cases, the only) threat, especially from his set pieces. While Juninho is Lyon’s most recognized player and often either provides assists or scores from free kicks, it’s a mistake to underestimate the breadth of his abilities or to write off the qualities of the other players. While his free kick abilities are unparalleled (Beckham who?), most of his influence is from open play. However, against physical opposition, Juninho tends to shut down, so Toulalan’s presence here will be crucial because without Toulalan, Juninho won’t be able to play.

Still, it’s a good omen for Lyon that Juninho has reached peak form right when we need him the most. It’s also amusing to see the Scots worried about Juninho’s diving. Granted, he did have that horrendous dive in the first match, but I don’t remember another time he’s dived like that. So I’m guessing he will be tightly marked, but I don’t know how much good that will do. It’s inevitable that Rangers will give away fouls in their own half whether they want to or not. For Rangers not to foul Lyon, they would either have to win 100% of their tackles cleanly or leave Lyon alone. So yeah…expect to see some good free kicks from Juninho.

Unfortunately, Juninho’s dive sullied his otherwise good reputation.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that this match will be open and thrilling. Maybe this will go against the very nature of Rangers, but it’s the most logical outcome of the game, and frankly, Lyon seem to inspire other teams to play nice football (except Ricardo’s Bordeaux). Rangers will lose if they try to defend, so their only option is to score first. Or else they might as well quit now and start thinking about the UEFA Cup.

Viewing Options:

ESPN2 will be broadcasting this match LIVE. So we can watch it on television! You don’t know how excited that makes me! Canal+, RDS, and TSN will also be broadcasting this match. You can buy the stream from either Setanta or ESPN for $7.95, and on Wednesday, about an hour before the match, I’ll post free streaming links as usual.

And before I forget, I just want to remind everyone that Marseille-Liverpool will be on ESPN2 tomorrow, so please keep OM in your thoughts. If neither Lyon nor Marseille get through, it will be the first time in five years that a French team hasn’t been in the Round of 16. Speaking for myself, I’ll be 200% behind Marseille tomorrow, and I sincerely believe they have what it takes to beat Liverpool. I know we’re domestic rivals, but in Europe, we’re united (at least we should be).

Expected Result:

The bookies have Lyon as favorites. About 62% of the visitors to UEFA.com believe Lyon will qualify. Even the always pessimistic French media believe Lyon will win. And if you go by present form, experience, and talent, then Lyon should walk away from Ibrox as victors.

But I think Rangers have a 60% chance of getting a draw, which for Lyon would be fatal. I won’t make a score prediction, but I think right now, Rangers are in control. But Lyon have the ability to take their fates into their own hands. And they will do it.

Hopefully, we won’t see such a scoreline again.

I just want to end this post with the words of midknight, a poster over at the BigSoccer forums. May it inspire you and give you faith as it has done for me.

Now Lyon have a date with destiny. It’s win or go home (well, no one really wants the UEFA cup at this stage). No more calculations, no away goals, no penalties. It’s win, on hostile territory, or play the rest of the season counting the space between yourself and Nancy. At least, that’s how I see it.

After a catastrophic start, Lyon seem to be growing from strength to strength. What if this was the season that Pinocchio became a real boy and announced itself as a real contender, with the mental strength necessary to bounce back, to hold off, to outmuscle, outwit and out grit its adversaries?

What if the worst season in the Champions league group stage is the one where OL go the farthest? What if this is the match that it takes - an absolute win away to a team known for their ability to bunker and outhustle, outmuscle and generally make your life a living hell when it has no obligation to play for anything other than 0-0?

What if it takes the knowledge that OL at 60% of their capacity (missing Coupet, Cris, Fred, playing blooming Loic Remy against Barcelona in a crucial match!, with a handicapped Juninho, a stubbornly unadapted coach, and drained of their great midfield players for 3 successive seasons), having collected 2 3-0 beat downs in a row, are not not only still in with a shout on the last day of the competition, but have their destiny in their own hands, in what was considered one of the tougher groups to begin with?

What if it takes the knowledge that when the knockout rounds restart, Juninho will be back to his best (seeing that he is on la pente ascendante), the long term injuries will be back, and the league will almost be a formality and thus less of a distraction, for them to do well?

What if this match is the match that decides if Lyon, against all odds, will finally become a Grand d’Europe?

What if this is the match that finally allows l’OL, as a group and as individuals, to BELIEVE?

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