

Se7en
By: Nikhil Apte | December 7th, 2011Dinamo Zagreb vs. Olympique Lyonnais
Matchday 6, UEFA Champions League Group Stages 2011/12.
The equation is simple really. Make mincemeat out of Dinamo Zagreb in Zagreb, and bribe Madrid to make fruit punch out of Ajax in Amsterdam. Seven strikers, one defender (Lovren, of course) and three goalkeepers ought to be enough, one would think?
Lyon has scored TWO goals in five UCL Group stage matches gone by. Another five to seven goals should be easy-peasy, right? Yeah. Should be about right. Real Madrid will surely win against Ajax, right?

So what happens if.. ?
Failure to win against Ajax on both Home and Away occasions means Lyon depends on two factors to qualify to the Ninth consecutive Round of 16 match at the Champions League.
- Real Madrid hammers Ajax at the Amsterdam Arena. And old rivalry exists between the two, no doubt. But surely Madrid would trade that joy for an opportunity to murder Lyon, at a heartbeat. Suppose they do indeed manage to make their way into Ajax’s 6-yard box cum team bus; how many star players would Mourinho be willing to risk keeping in mind Barcelona looms large? El Clasico on Saturday pretty much ruins hopes that Madrid (apart from Benzema, if he is allowed to play) will want to sweat too much over an inconsequential match for them. An Ajax victory or draw ruins a long running party for Lyon.
- Dinamo Zagreb, which has lost all matches till year in the Group stages, loses another, and preferably by a massive margin. In order for Lyon to have a very real chance, the Goal difference for the match should be +6, assuming Madrid beats Ajax by atleast one goal. Here’s the difficult part. It is an away game, and the last 4-0 away win was against lowly Debrecen in 09/10. And that Dinamo Zagreb will be playing for pride, looking for their first points of the season.
For the Champions League, the Tie Breaker criteria for equal points are : Head to Head games points > Head to head goal difference > Away goals between tied teams > Goal Difference > Goals scored > UEFA coefficient points.
Lyon- Ajax 2011/12 Group Stages comparison.
Points = 0, GD = 0, Away goals = 0, Goal difference = (-4) – (+3) = (-7), Goals scored = 2 – 6 = (-4). Coefficient difference = 85.10 – 55.10 = +30(!!)
Hence, provided the tiebreaker priorities are correct, if Lyon scored 4 goals over Zagreb and Real Madrid scored 3 clear goals over Ajax, then Lyon would go through purely on the basis of the good work done in the last four years!
That would also mean, that any less than 4 goals scored virtually gives us even smaller chance of qualifying, as Madrid would need to get 4 over Ajax to allow Lyon to pass.

Who’s in the Lineups and who’s out promoting Ubuntu?
It is Dejan Lovren’s homecoming! Having come up the ranks from the youth system for Dinamo Zagreb, and it would be interesting to see how he’s received. But the moment the whistle blows for kickoff, one hopes to see all things forgotten and laid to rest and him hopefully scoring one to help his current team out. It was Bakary Koné who scored the last time round against DZ, in a game that also had the superb chipped goal by Gomis.
Michel Bastos will be sorely missed. From what Google translations could make of news, he seems to have opted out of the match to avoid risking injury. It looks like he will be replaced Ederson, who could be replaced by Gourcuff. Or will Gomis be combined with Lisandro on the left instead?
Rémi Garde may choose his players all he wants. But they will have to play their hearts out, if there are to be Lyon celebrations at the end of the match.
Possible Team Lineups
Dinamo Zagreb : Kelava – Tomecak, Vida, Cufre, Ibanez – Badeji, Callelo, Leko, Sammir – Rukavina, Beciraj
Lyon : Lloris - Reveillere, Kone, Lovren, Cissokho – Kallstrom, Gonalons – Briand, Ederson, Lisandro – Gomis
P.S : Baah, I’ll admit it, time to bid adieu to Champions League 11-12, folks.
Yes fairy tales do come alive at times. But, somehow, that works only for the traditionally great teams and the never-before-never-again minnows.
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